Short interest

What happened next to stocks whose short interest reached 10% of shares outstanding — counted over stored episodes, each rate beside a lightly shorted control. Every number here is a frequency from the past. None of it is a read on any stock today.

Data through the 2026-10-15 FINRA settlement · 21,466 graded episodes since 2021-09

Crowded shorts moved both tails

Crowded · 21,466 episodes Lightly shorted · 45,382

Rose 40%+

includes the squeezed rows below

23% crowded
12% light

n 21,466 crowded · 45,382 lightly shorted

Squeezed

rose 40%+ AND short interest fell 30%+

5% crowded
2% light

n 21,466 crowded · 45,382 lightly shorted

Shorts quietly left

covered without the rise

15% crowded
16% light

n 21,466 crowded · 45,382 lightly shorted

Fell 20%+

max drawdown from entry

39% crowded
22% light

n 21,466 crowded · 45,382 lightly shorted

Neither

no 40% rise, no 20% fall

23% crowded
51% light

n 21,466 crowded · 45,382 lightly shorted

Crowded shorting moved the frequency of both big outcomes, not one of them: over 60 sessions a 40%+ rise ran 23% against 12% for lightly shorted stocks, and a 20%+ fall ran 39% against 22%. The strict squeeze — the rise with shorts actually leaving — happened in 5% of them.

Counted over stored episodes since 2021-09. Frequencies of what already happened, per cohort — no statement about any stock today.

The map of every cell

5%35%15%55%rose 40%+ (% of episodes)fell 20%+ (% of episodes)1 cell not drawn — no rates to place10-15% · 5-1010-15% · 2-530%+ · <210-15% · 10+10-15% · <230%+ · 2-515-20% · 5-1030%+ · 5-1020-30% · <215-20% · 10+15-20% · 2-515-20% · <220-30% · 5-1020-30% · 2-530%+ · 10+lightly shorted

Each bubble is one short-interest × days-to-cover cell over 60 sessions, sized by episodes counted. Blue dots are the readings from the 2026-10-15 FINRA settlement, placed at their cell — the cell's history, never a read on the stock. 1 cell carry no rates at all — too few episodes, or rates that changed between periods — so they are marked hollow in the corner rather than plotted, and receive no dots: 20-30% · 10+ (changed between periods). Axes span the observed range (5–35% across, 15–55% up), not 0–100.

Three things the numbers do not support

More days to cover did not mean more squeezes

under 2 days10%

n 5,830 · squeezed

2-5 days4%

n 5,388 · squeezed

5-10 days3%

n 5,973 · squeezed

10+ days2%

n 4,275 · squeezed

The squeeze frequency ran highest in the LOWEST days-to-cover band and flattened as the band rose. Lightly shorted stocks: 2% (n 45,382).

Most big rises happened without shorts leaving

shorts did not fall66%

n 3,254 · of the 40%+ rises

fell 15-30%13%

n 620 · of the 40%+ rises

fell 30%+21%

n 1,027 · of the 40%+ rises

Of the 4,904 episodes that rose 40%+, this is how far short interest actually fell over the same 60 sessions. The share where shorts barely moved is the largest of the three.

The volatility band separated the outcomes more than the short size

over 80% vol8%

n 8,523 · squeezed

40-80% vol3%

n 8,979 · squeezed

under 40% vol1%

n 2,736 · squeezed

Grouped by the 20-session annualised volatility measured before entry. Lightly shorted stocks: 2% (n 45,382).

Today's most shorted

SRZN95.7% of float

41.9% of outstanding · 4.77 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthDistressedValuationExpensiveBusinesstoo little history
GOSS89.2% of float

23.5% of outstanding · 5.12 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 28% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 750

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessnot stored
CDTG84.9% of float

34.5% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · <2

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 10% · fell 20%+ 37% n 2,179

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdeclining
ZBIO82.1% of float

19.2% of outstanding · 18.83 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 15-20% · 10+

rose 40%+ 19% · squeezed 2% · fell 20%+ 35% n 938

HealthDistressedValuationExpensiveBusinesstoo little history
WCT80.4% of float

13.1% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · fell vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · <2

rose 40%+ 30% · squeezed 10% · fell 20%+ 34% n 1,782

HealthFragileValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdeclining
TRUG80% of float

79.1% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · <2

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 10% · fell 20%+ 37% n 2,179

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdecelerating
TGL75.8% of float

70.6% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · <2

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 10% · fell 20%+ 37% n 2,179

HealthFragileValuationCheap-lookingBusinessaccelerating
WFF74.7% of float

23.7% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · <2

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 8% · fell 20%+ 38% n 1,018

HealthMixedValuationCheap-lookingBusinesstoo little history
SMR70.4% of float

68.4% of outstanding · 2.65 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthFragileValuationExpensiveBusinessdeclining
GRPN68.3% of float

30.9% of outstanding · 15.45 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthFragileValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdeclining
LCID65.4% of float

31.4% of outstanding · 9.70 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessaccelerating
UWMC64.9% of float

55.3% of outstanding · 6.51 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessaccelerating
WYFI58.9% of float

14.3% of outstanding · 3.73 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 2% · fell 20%+ 41% n 2,371

HealthFragileValuationFair rangeBusinessdeclining
PRME55.3% of float

18.1% of outstanding · 5.52 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow 0.37%

Cell 15-20% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 22% · squeezed 3% · fell 20%+ 39% n 1,085

HealthFragileValuationExpensiveBusinesstoo little history
SHOE55.1% of float

36.4% of outstanding · 10.41 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthStrongValuationFair rangeBusinessdeclining
IPX54.4% of float

43.1% of outstanding · 4.23 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthFragileValuationPre-revenueBusinesstoo little history
EHGO54.2% of float

38.7% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · fell vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · <2

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 10% · fell 20%+ 37% n 2,179

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessturning
INFQ52.8% of float

12.6% of outstanding · 3.89 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 2% · fell 20%+ 41% n 2,371

HealthFragileValuationPre-revenueBusinesstoo little history
KRMN51% of float

11.4% of outstanding · 5.26 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 18% · squeezed 2% · fell 20%+ 36% n 3,057

HealthSolidValuationExpensiveBusinessaccelerating
FLNC50.4% of float

25.2% of outstanding · 6.14 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 28% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 750

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdecelerating
ONDS47.6% of float

43.6% of outstanding · 4.57 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthSolidValuationExpensiveBusinessaccelerating
BTDR47% of float

26.4% of outstanding · 6.43 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 28% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 750

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessaccelerating
GRRR46.9% of float

44.3% of outstanding · 4.66 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessmixed
MAZE46.9% of float

13.6% of outstanding · 10.09 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · 10+

rose 40%+ 17% · squeezed 1% · fell 20%+ 36% n 1,971

HealthDistressedValuationPre-revenueBusinesstoo little history
ABEO46.7% of float

30.1% of outstanding · 12.70 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthDistressedValuationExpensiveBusinesstoo little history
CRML45.3% of float

21% of outstanding · 5.46 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 28% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 750

HealthFragileValuationExpensiveBusinessaccelerating
MEDS45.3% of float

10.6% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · <2

rose 40%+ 30% · squeezed 10% · fell 20%+ 34% n 1,782

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessturning
CCCC45.2% of float

34.7% of outstanding · 16.95 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthDistressedValuationExpensiveBusinessaccelerating
MMEDV44.9% of float

43.6% of outstanding · 801.13 days to cover · unread vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthFragileValuationCheap-lookingBusinessnot stored
QTTB44.4% of float

19% of outstanding · 5.25 days to cover · rose vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 15-20% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 22% · squeezed 3% · fell 20%+ 39% n 1,085

HealthSolidValuationCheap-lookingBusinessnot stored
BETR43.9% of float

27.9% of outstanding · 3.29 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 2-5

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 46% n 717

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessmixed
SOUN42.6% of float

38.5% of outstanding · 10.05 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthFragileValuationExpensiveBusinessslowing from high
NUAI42.1% of float

29.3% of outstanding · 3.14 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 2-5

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 46% n 717

HealthDistressedValuationExpensiveBusinesstoo little history
TAL41.3% of float

31.2% of outstanding · 6.92 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthStrongValuationCheap-lookingBusinessmixed
CSIQ40.9% of float

28.6% of outstanding · 13.58 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 10+

changed between periods

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdeclining
NGNE40.6% of float

32.2% of outstanding · 14.36 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthFragileValuationPre-revenueBusinesstoo little history
PPCB40.4% of float

22.2% of outstanding · 1.00 days to cover · fell vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · <2

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 8% · fell 20%+ 38% n 1,018

HealthDistressedValuationPre-revenueBusinesstoo little history
METC39.9% of float

32.6% of outstanding · 7.69 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessturning
EROC39.9% of float

23.8% of outstanding · 3.58 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 2-5

rose 40%+ 26% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 46% n 717

HealthSolidValuationExpensiveBusinesstoo little history
CLBK39.8% of float

10.1% of outstanding · 6.69 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 10-15% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 18% · squeezed 2% · fell 20%+ 36% n 3,057

HealthSolidValuationExpensiveBusinessmixed
RH39.5% of float

28.8% of outstanding · 6.12 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 28% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 750

HealthStrongValuationExpensiveBusinessdecelerating
SERV39.4% of float

36% of outstanding · 10.43 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 10+

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 47% n 710

HealthMixedValuationExpensiveBusinessaccelerating
EOSE39.1% of float

38.5% of outstanding · 4.70 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessslowing from high
SPCE39.1% of float

30.4% of outstanding · 7.10 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthDistressedValuationExpensiveBusinessdeclining
GEMI39% of float

29.2% of outstanding · 7.21 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 20-30% · 5-10

rose 40%+ 28% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 750

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessdecelerating
RXRX38.8% of float

30.2% of outstanding · 4.44 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthFragileValuationExpensiveBusinessmixed
NNE38.4% of float

32.1% of outstanding · 7.77 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthFragileValuationFair rangeBusinesstoo little history
RDW37.9% of float

19.5% of outstanding · 3.67 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 15-20% · 2-5

rose 40%+ 29% · squeezed 4% · fell 20%+ 42% n 874

HealthDistressedValuationFair rangeBusinessaccelerating
HTZ40.1% of shares outstanding (float stale)

40.1% of outstanding · 5.92 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 5-10

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 45% n 1,081

HealthDistressedValuationCheap-lookingBusinessaccelerating
USAR38.8% of shares outstanding (float stale)

38.8% of outstanding · 3.53 days to cover · flat vs prior · borrow not in IB book

Cell 30%+ · 2-5

rose 40%+ 21% · squeezed 5% · fell 20%+ 48% n 1,426

HealthFragileValuationFair rangeBusinesstoo little history

Top 50 by short % of float from the 2026-10-15 FINRA settlement. The cell is keyed on the OUTSTANDING percent (the study's own basis — it has no historical float), and days to cover is FINRA's own figure for that settlement, which is the same number the study bands. The three history columns always render together with their n, and cannot be sorted on. Borrow fee is Interactive Brokers' book, read daily — a newer vintage than the settlement, blank where that book has no record. Rates are 60-session frequencies for the cell, never a read on the stock.

Excluded from this list: 18 readings whose short interest exceeded the shares outstanding — the FINRA symbol and the filed share count disagree there, so no percent from them is real (BBCI, SCNI, LBGJ, MI, PUR, AMTD, NIVF, AIXI…). A further 13 show float as unavailable because the float count implied more than 100% short — the outstanding basis that keys their cell is still sound.

How this is measured

  • What counts as crowded: Crowded means FINRA short interest reached 10% of shares OUTSTANDING (the last quarter filed before entry) — never float, because the study has no historical float.
  • When the clock starts: Entry is the first session AFTER FINRA published the reading, never the settlement session — nobody could act on it before publication.
  • What the outcomes mean: Measured over the window from that entry close: rose 40%+ (max close gain), squeezed (rose 40%+ AND short interest fell 30%+), shorts quietly left (cover without the rise), fell 20%+ (max drawdown), neither.
  • Compared with what: Every rate is shown beside lightly shorted stocks (under 5% of outstanding) over the same windows — the control answers "compared with what".
  • What this study is not: The stored series begins 2021-09; the early-2021 episodes are not in it. Short interest reaching 10% of outstanding is rare in large caps, so this is a small/mid-cap study by construction.

Short-interest data through the 2026-10-15 FINRA settlement; episode counts last recounted 2026-10-27. Full methodology